NDIP Market Brief

The Norwegian defence opportunity

Norway is among the fastest-growing defence markets in Europe. For a supplier, the number that matters is not the size of the market, but how fast new component spend is being added to it.

Component-spend growth
+20–25%/yr
NDIP-addressable demand, near term (est.)
Component market
NOK 16bn
EUR 1.38bn addressable today
Industry turnover
+34%
2024 growth, to NOK 46bn (EUR 3.9bn)
Order backlog
3× revenue
Contracted, awaiting delivery
01The demand is real and booked

The spend is growing fast.

The size of the Norwegian defence market matters less than its speed. Industry turnover grew 34% in 2024, to over NOK 46bn (EUR 3.9bn), and the order backlog grew faster still, to more than three times annual revenue. That backlog is years of contracted work the industry has not yet been able to deliver, so the growth ahead is already booked, not hoped for. The component spend NDIP addresses, roughly NOK 16bn (EUR 1.38bn) today, is growing an estimated 20–25% a year on this trajectory. It is underpinned by a defence budget that nearly doubled from 2021 to 2026, from NOK 65bn (EUR 5.6bn) to NOK 112bn (EUR 9.6bn), and a NOK 1,624bn (EUR 139bn) Long-Term Defence Plan.

NOK 65bn 2021 ~2% GDP 2024 NOK 112bn 2026 5% GDP 2035 LTP 2025–36: NOK 1,624bn
Norwegian defence budget trajectory, 2021–2035. Bar heights illustrative; figures are sourced government commitments.

And the order books are growing faster than revenue. Across the industry, revenue has grown more than 20% a year since 2020, while the backlog has climbed from about 1.5 to more than 3 times annual revenue, demand outrunning the capacity to deliver it:

Listed (reported) Non-listed (est.) Backlog ÷ revenue (right axis) Revenue, NOK bn Backlog ÷ revenue (×) 0204060 1.5×1.8×2.2×2.4×3.1×3.4× 202020212022202320242025e
Norwegian defence-industry revenue (left axis, stacked) and order backlog as a multiple of revenue (right axis, line), 2020–2025. Total revenue and the backlog ratio are FFI sector statistics; 2025 is an estimate (2025e). The listed/non-listed split is indicative: listed approximates the publicly-traded contractors (Kongsberg/KDA, Kitron, Norbit); non-listed is the remainder (Nammo and the wider supplier base).
02The European advantage

European origin is now an advantage.

Norway is a NATO founder and an EEA member, but not an EU member. That places Norwegian and European content on the favoured side of the EU's new defence-industrial rules. Under the EUR 150bn SAFE instrument, at least 65% of component cost must originate in the EU, Ukraine or the EEA. Offset obligations are largely waived for EEA-based suppliers, and ITAR-free European content is actively preferred. A European producer represented through a Norwegian counterpart sits inside both local-content boundaries at once, which is exactly the supplier a Norwegian prime now needs.

«European-origin content is now on the right side of every sourcing rule that matters.»
03The opening, and the timing

The door is open now.

The contractors are supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. The hardest bottleneck is energetics, propellant and explosives, where Europe is structurally short and the incumbents cannot close the gap alone. Components and electronics are in broad pull. But the window is specific. As Kongsberg puts it, «once production is underway, it is extremely difficult to become a supplier.» The openings are in the development and capacity-build phase, and that phase is happening now.

What NDIP does

NDIP represents European defence-component producers into the Norwegian supply chain as a commercial agent, under binding agency agreements, backed by a documented governance, vetting and quality-assurance framework. We carry the qualification work, clearance, quality, export control and integrity. A contractor gains secure, allied supply through one accountable Norwegian counterpart. A supplier gains access it could not build alone, while the window is open. ndip.no

Euro figures converted at about NOK 11.7 to the euro. The component-market estimate (NOK 16bn / EUR 1.38bn) is NDIP's bottom-up of addressable electronics-component spend across the leading Norwegian buyers. Sources: Norwegian Government (regjeringen.no), Long-Term Defence Plan 2025–2036 and the NATO 5%-of-GDP pledge · Council of the EU, the SAFE instrument · FFI / FSi defence-industry statistics 2024 · Kongsberg and Nammo investor reporting. The full sourced analysis, with 76 references, is available on request.